EC Gastroenterology and Digestive System

The international consensus recommend risk scoring systems for the prediction of various clinical outcomes in patients with gastro-intestinal bleeding for successful prognosis and treatment. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive accuracy of three risk scoring systems in Moroccan patients with acute non variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB).

From January, 2020 till December 2021, patients with NVUGIB from an university hospital center were retrospectively enrolled. The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall score (RS), and AIM65 (albumin, INR, mental status, systolic blood pressure and age > 65) were calculated. Their performance was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve.

A total 219 patients had NVUGIB. The areas under the curve (AUC) of the GBS, RS, and AIM65 for predicting the need for blood transfusion were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61. The AUC for predicting mortality were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting rebleeding.

GBS, RS, and AIM65 were precise scores for assessing the need for blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy, mortality, and surgery during NVUGIB.

Keywords: Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding; AIMS65 Score; Rockall Score; Glasgow-Blatchford Score; Accuracy; Risk Assessment

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